Thursday, February 28, 2008

KO and Money Leaderboards Updated

We've just concluded Brawl #7. It was another great night with plenty of stories to tell. I'll do a full recap later this week. For now, KO and Money Leaderboards are up. jmlabrie18 still holds the top money, and roccav held on to the KO title.

We shattered the attendance record again with 35 Brawlers, and had a lot of new faces at the final table. A full tourney recap to follow soon...

Thanks to all those who came out this week. Hope to see you again next Wednesday!

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Profile: Beth Shak

The Brawl was happy to welcome Beth Shak as it's first guest appearance of a Full Tilt Pro. Beth is best known for her 2007 WSOP 2nd place cash navigating a field of 827 players for $328,000.

In addition to being a ruthless player on the felt, Beth excels in many other aspects of life as well. She is a dedicated mother and wife to her family, an accomplished business woman and involves herself any many charities. One close to her heart is the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's Palliative Care Program.

The Brawlers, once again, thank Beth Shak for coming out and taking some flops with us...

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore

Bmore's Brawl #6 Tourney Recap

Wow, what can I say about Brawl #6? We shattered our attendance record with 30 entrants, had our first Royal Flush of the series, had a record for most KOs in a Brawl, welcomed five new Brawlers including an FTP Pro, and had an epic heads up battle for the title!

First let's start with a big thank you and welcome to first time Brawlers hastur310, The9to5, toilets, vrameglis and Beth Shak. Beth Shak became our first guest appearance of a Full Tilt Pro. She was very kind to accept the invitation, and everyone enjoyed taking some flops and having conversation with her during the Brawl.

The Brawl also shattered the previous attendance record of 24 with 30 entrants last week. With this count, roccav was able to receive the full buy-in bounty when he busted our Full Tilt Pro, as well as a free "I KO'd a Pro" t-shirt from Full Tilt Poker. Congrats!

First time Brawler hastur310 had a very exciting hand, when he rivered the first Royal Flush in Brawler history below:

Good flop, but you gotta love that river!

Seven Brawlers made the money this week. AltronIV was the first to bust out when his live cards preflop got crushed by quads below:

Congrats to AltronIV for his first Brawl cash last week. Watch out if this guy gets hot. I was next to go in 6th place when I raced Soooted42 below:

See ya! Keeping family close together, xojones was next to bust in 5th, when he ran into jmlabrie18 with a monster:

With the blinds escalating, the short stacks continued to press, but the coin flips weren't in their favor this week. Here's saveparmk72 busting in 4th when his AK can't improve:

AK just wasn't winning tonight, as Soooted42 busted out with in 3rd as well:

That left two previous Brawl winners to battle it out for the title this week. It was an epic match between jmlabrie18 and roccav, with many awesome hands to watch. Here's a point early in the battle when jmlabrie18 makes a move to get chipped up:

On the turn, it looked like the match would be over quickly, but jmlabrie18 spiked a jack on the river to get chipped up:


Unfortunately, my computer froze up during the last couple of hands, but we were able to retrieve the hand history of the final hand below:

Seat 3: roccav (57,020)
Seat 9: jmlabrie18 (32,980)
roccav antes 250
jmlabrie18 antes 250
roccav posts the small blind of 1,000
jmlabrie18 posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to roccav [9c 9h]
roccav raises to 5,000
jmlabrie18 raises to 12,000
roccav has 15 seconds left to actroccav calls 7,000
*** FLOP *** [Qh Ac 2h]
jmlabrie18 bets 20,730, and is all in
roccav has 15 seconds left to act
roccav has requested TIME
roccav calls 20,730
jmlabrie18 shows [8h Ks]
roccav shows [9c 9h]
*** TURN *** [Qh Ac 2h] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [Qh Ac 2h 9s] [6c]
jmlabrie18 shows Ace King high
roccav shows three of a kind, Nines
roccav wins the pot (65,960) with three of a kind, Nines
jmlabrie18 stands up
jmlabrie18 (Observer): gg
roccav stands up


A sick call to end a hard-fought heads-up battle. Congrats to roccav for taking it down and capturing a record-breaking 11 KOs for one Brawl. Final lobby results below:


Thanks to all of those who came out to the Brawl. It was a very exciting week. I'd like to, once again, send a special thanks to Beth Shak for sitting in with our crew and taking some flops. I had numerous people tell me after the tournament that they thought that it was really cool for a pro to come hang out with us for the evening. Next week, we welcome Keith Sexton, another gracious FTP pro, who is kind enough to take some time and play with the Brawlers...

See you all Wednesday!

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore

Thursday, February 21, 2008

KO and Money Leaderboards Updated

The KO and Money Leaderboards for Bmore's Brawl have been updated to include the results from Brawl #6. jmlabrie18 held on to his top spot on the Money Leaderboard. However, roccav captured an amazing 11 KOs in this week's Brawl to seize the top spot on the KO Leaderboard.

A full recap of Brawl #6 will be posted later this week. We shattered the attendance record, welcomed five new Brawlers, had a Full Tilt Pro play with us, and had an awesome heads up match for the title. Stay tuned for a lengthy blog with all the details.

Thanks again to all those that came out last tonight. Hope to see you next week!

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore

Monday, February 18, 2008

Ship that Sherbert!

I'm not sure what was better: Rivering the Royal OR the guy four-betting on 5th to get all the money in:

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore

Bmore's Brawl #5 - The Rufface & Beginner's Luck

Thanks to all those attending Bmore's Brawl #5 last Wednesday. We tied our record attendance last week at 24 entrants. The Brawl welcomed two new players last week with LGGQUE and heydaynow coming out to see some flops. Here's how the tourney went down...

Brawlers witnessed some sick beats in Week 5. My favorite by far was soooted42's crazy river on playingcatch. They get the money all in on the turn, and soooted42 tables "The Rufface," and delivers a stunning blow on the river:

Ouch!

That was one of many beats delivered in Week 5. There were too many to document, but CrazyDiggity wrote about one of two outers on his site if you want to check it out. At any rate, five Brawlers were able to navigate through the mine field for a cash in the Brawl. Congrats to thebmorekid, hslaw06, soooted42, que31dawg and heydaynow. Here's how the action went after the bubble:

After I had a quick bust after the money bubble, hslaw06 was the next casuality when he raced heydaynow and bricked out:

At this point, heydaynow was just crushing the final table. It looked like soooted42 was going to even up the table a little bit in this next hand, but the river changed all of that. Watch how he gets out flopped, turns a sick card, and then gets crushed by the river:

Painful to watch even in replay!
que31dawg battled hard, and at one point, got the chip counts pretty even. In the end though, it was heydaynow's day, as he took it down on this final hand:

Money goes in on the flop:

And for a nice change of pace for Week 5, the best hand held up:

Congrats to heydaynow for taking down Bmore's Brawl #5. It was a hard fought effort. With some lucky cards, a well played game, and a bit of beginner's luck he was able to make a name for himself in his first Brawl appearance. Final lobby is shown below:

Thank you to everyone who came out last week. It was definitely an entertaining week. We've still got some strong Brawlers who have yet to cash, so next week should be very interesting...
See you this Wednesday!

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore






Thursday, February 14, 2008

KO and Money Leaderboards Updated

The KO and Money Leaderboards for Bmore's Brawl have been updated to include the results of last night's tourney. jmlabrie18 still holds the top spot in both categories. Newcomer heydaynow vaulted himself up the chart with a strong first appearance last night taking down the tourney and capturing nine KOs.

A full recap of Bmore's Brawl #5 will be posted later this week. Thanks to all that came out last night. Hope to see you next week!

Damn Donkeys,
Bmore

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Bmore's Brawl #4 Tourney Recap

Week Four of Bmore's Brawl brought out a record-breaking attendance with 24 entrants! Thanks to FleetAsh, gargus48, kibl and LargeSeaBass for making their first appearances. Next week is shaping up to be another potential record attendance as well. Perhaps we will crack the four table mark! We shall see...

A change in the payout structure this week got five brawlers into the money. Congrats to mind27, thebmorekid, rfjmc32, playingcatch and jmlabrie18 for adding to their totals on the Money Leaderboard. First out after the bubble was mind27 with the final board below:

With jmlabrie18 and thebmorekid tied for first place on the MoneyLeaderboard, whomever could finish deeper would take 1st place all to themselves until Week Five. It wasn't thebmorekid's week, as he busted getting it in bad against jmlabrie18 below:

The final three battled it out with some crazy hands including this attempt by rjfmc32 to double up against jmlabrie18:

A sick turn card put jmlabrie18 in position to knock rfjmc32 out, but the river came through and the best hand ended up good with all the cards out:

However, it just wasn't rfjmc32's tourney to win, as shown with this hand below that takes him out. Once again he's able to get his money in good against playingcatch:

Another nasty turn spikes, and this time the river can't come through:

After rfjmc32 was eliminated in 3rd place, the final two brawlers battled it out for the most exciting heads-up conclusion of the brawls to-date. On the final hand of an awesome battle, we see two strong hands collide:
As the board runs out, jmlabrie18's flopped flush holds up:

Congrats to jmlabrie18 for taking down his SECOND Brawl in just four weeks! playingcatch put up a very respectable 2nd place finish including total domination at the final table. The final results in the lobby are shown below:


That wraps up the action for last week's Brawl. I'm looking forward to a healthy turnout this Wednesday. Hope to see you this Wednesday at 9pm!

Damn Donkeys,

Bmore

Saturday, February 9, 2008

The Paradox of Chevalier De Mere and Prop Bets

Update: A big thanks to everyone has a made this a top search for Chevalier De Mere. We had fun working out this problem, and I hope that my explanation helps you to learn the key concepts as well. If you enjoy this entry, please pay it forward by visiting my other blog where we are truly trying to start a movement...thanks again

The Thursday night game brought up a prop bet that didn't sound right to me. When I first heard it, I knew something smelled fishy and that there was an edge that nobody had really mathematically worked out. So, because I can't let things go, here's the bet and the mathematical edge:

A guy tells you that, while watching the flop in hold-em he'll take three cards as his. Let's say he takes the jacks, sevens and fours. You take the rest of the deck. You run the flops and pay even money to whomever can hit.

A quick look at the bet determines that he's taking 12 out of 52 cards (23% of the deck) and you are getting 40 out of 52 cards (77% of the deck). Okay, so the edge is to you so far. I mean, if this was a prop bet on every river card, you'd clean this guy after a couple or rounds...

But the bet isn't on the river card. It's on the flop which includes three cards. And I think the reason this hustle works is two fold:

1. the guy gives off the appearance of being a maniac at the table;
2. crunching the numbers on the basic probabilities give the taker such an edge that people will assume they will keep a good edge even peeling of three cards on a flop

At any rate, dialogue ensued, and at first we were having trouble working out the math...

I personally started to work this problem by adding the probabilities of each event (independently) together. blowpar68 stopped me in my tracks because, using this logic, I'd have over a 100% edge if we were running out six or seven cards. This incorrect form of logic is better known as The Paradox of Chevalier De Mere.

Quick note here: The chance that at least one of the three cards here COULD be determined by adding the sum of the individual chances IF the outcomes were mutually exclusive. The problem is that they are not, so you are double-counting. So, I was on the right track, but just couldn't remember that my equation was double-counting. Luckily, an OM Rounder popped into the conversation in just enough time to save me...

Using AltronIV's approach was, by far, the quickest way to arrive at the correct probabilities for both outcomes. Rather than trying to determine the probability of your outcome OCCURRING, work out the math on your outcome NOT occurring and subtract from 100%.

Alas, here is the math:

To calculate the probability of three events occurring sequentially (all together) you need to multiply the probability of each event together. (P1 X P2 X P3) So, the probability that we will NOT hit a J, 7 or 4 is:

40/52 (76.9%) missing on first card
39/51 (76.4%) missing on second card
38/50 (76%) missing on third card

Multiplying them together we get:

76.9% x 76.4% x 76% = 44.6%

Therefore, 44.6% of the time we will miss a jack, seven or four on all three cards dealt on a flop. Subtracting this from 100%, we realize that 55.4% of the time we WILL hit one of those cards on one of the cards from the flop.

The edge is 5.4% to the guy who takes the jacks,sevens and fours...

There's the math, and I guess the moral is (as always), if a bet seems too good to be true, it usually is...

Damn Donkeys,
Bmore

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Updated Brawl Leaderboards

We've just concluded Bmore's Brawl # 4 and I've got the updated Leaderboards posted on the left...

A special thanks to FleetAsh, gargus48, kibl and LargeSeaBass for making their first appearances in the Brawl tonight. With the four fresh new faces, we were able to break our attendance record with 24 entrants!

Congrats to jmlabrie18 for taking it down after overcoming a huge chip disadvantage. A full tournament report will be posted later this week...

Damn Donkeys,
Bmore

Sunday, February 3, 2008

OM Rounder Marcus "que31dawg" Johnson cashes at Borgata WPT

Well, it was a good trip for the OM Rounders, but a great trip for the QUE Dogs! Marcus made it a 1-2 combo for the QUE Dogs up at the Borgata last week cashing 23rd in Event 16. The $350 tourney had 602 entrants and Marcus put up a very respectable run getting all the way down to the final three tables. A cold deck at the end prevented this cat from bringing a bracelet home, but he was the only OM Rounder to cash in the event.


More importantly, the cash makes him the third OM Rounder to appear in the Card Player Database. We're taking over the poker world!


Marcus had some tough decisions along the way. He had QQ hold up twice when he was all in. He made a sick call with AK after someone pushed on him. He had to drop pocket 10s to an all-in when his tourney life was on the line. After that disciplined drop he won 4 out of the next 6 pots taking his stack from 29k to over 100k.


He was able to later get a guy to call his all in when he held AA and got to a peak of about 200,000. A cold deck the last hour was the only thing that stopped this guy from bringing all the sherbert back home.


Congrats to Marcus for an outstanding showing at the Borgata WPT and also crushing the cash games before we left!


Damn Donkeys,
Bmore

OM Rounder Knowlton "LGGQUE" Atterbeary chops the Borgata Daily Tourney for $3300

The OM Rounders had a successful WPT Borgata Open trip last week. However, our biggest cash came from Knowlton "LGGQUE" Atterbeary at the Borgata Wednesday Daily Tourney. With half the OM Rounders already back to Baltimore, LGGQUE made the most of his trip grabbing a $3300 chop on his way out the door. I caught up with LGGQUE this week to get this inside scoop.


Building his stack wasn't easy. He counted about six all-ins throughout the tourney with two major decisions making a big difference. A nice execution of slow-playing trip 5s got him about 22,000, but other than that it was a grind to the money.


The best part about this story is that LGGQUE was under the weather the whole tourney. After playing eight hours in the Borgata WPT the day before, and not a lot of sleep, he could barely stay focused. He recalls wanting the tourney to end because he was so sick. He came out in Jordan-esque style though, and kept rolling on through the tourney.


On the bubble to the final table, he was faced with calling an all-in with JJ. Knowing that the pot would either get him healthy or send him to the rail, it wasn't an easy call. But, in true OM Rounders fashion, he thought long and said F*ck it. His opponent had A8 and bricked out.


After that it was OM Rounder domination as he elevated to the chip leader up until the chop. Even when he got a major cooler with KK, running into AA, he still had the chip lead when the chop was finalized. They ended up chopping six ways, with the top four getting $3300 piece.


Congrats to LGGQUE for representing the crew...


Damn Donkeys,
Bmore

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Bmore's Brawl #3- Beginner's Luck & the Awesome Power of Elmurst

We had another successful Bmore's Brawl last Wednesday. A special thanks goes out to roccav and momx2 for their appearances this week. Both first time brawlers had a very good showing. Let's start the update with Crazydiggity, mind27 and AltronIV in a classic three way battle:



And of course, we all know the outcome of this one:


I'm too tired to pokerstove it preflop, but that's a two-outer on the river. What fun it is, with one card to go, to be a 90.5% favorite against two hands... Ship that sherbert!

First time brawler roccav dominated the final table action with sound play, and a little help from the poker gods. After the money bubble burst, surfinRRT made a move to double up, when roccav looked down at the magical hand:


Elmhurrrrrrrrst!

Forget that MoneyMaker won the 2003 WSOP with this hand and started the poker boom. Forget that I saw a guy on the WPT raise with this hand three times in a row and take two massive pots. If any evidence is needed for the power of the 45, I present to the courtroom Exhibit A- the power of Elmhurst:



Pass the cheese and crackers!

Heads up, roccav and saveparmk72 took a flop with two cowboys and a nine ball. When the money got all in, roccav didn't have much of sweat to take it down:


Congratulations to roccav for taking it down, and saveparmk72 and surfinRRT for making the money. Final results are below:



My apologies for not getting this update out earlier in the week. Work was hectic with the mid-week trip to the Borgata WPT. I've got a lot of news from that trip that I'll post as soon as I can. See you all next week for Bmore's Brawl #4. It should be a good one.

Damn Donkeys,
Bmore

Bmore's Brawl Leaderboards are up!

I've got the Leaderboards posted on the left over there for Bmore's Brawl 2008. I'll be tracking KO leaders and money leaders on the site. My spreadsheets have a couple more stats that I can profile from time to time, but the Leaderboards will always be updated. I should be able to update these boards right after each tournament every week. So, I'll get the boards correct, and then post a full update on the tourney as soon as I can. Enjoy...

Damn Donkeys,
Bmore